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21
September 1999: Why the generals cannot be written off
as a political
force in Indonesia
Foreign
troops restoring order in East Timor may represent a humiliation
forthe Indonesian military but the generals who ruled for
more than 30 years cannot be written off, according to analysts
in Jakarta. It was a telling sign of the military's grip on
power that, just as Indonesian troops were withdrawing in
disgrace to make way for Australian and Asian troops, its
commander was being nominated for the vice-presidency. "Whichever
way you look at it, the military form a source of leadership
for us," said Akbar Tanjung, chairman of the ruling Golkar
party, as he suggested General Wiranto - ahead of three civilian
alternatives - as running mate for President B.J. Habibie
in November's presidential vote. Many Indonesians believe
Gen Wiranto may even replace Mr Habibie on the ticket and
pose a challenge to Megawati Sukarnoputri, the popular opposition
leader.
These
elections will prove a test of the military's lingering strength
in the face of humiliation and political reforms that have
challenged their role in politics. Analysts said, however,
that the military had been surprisingly effective in deflecting
popular frustration and in reminding Indonesia's elite that
it cannot afford to alienate its army. "Their image has been
damaged," said Arief Budiman, an Indonesian sociologist teaching
in Australia, referring to military leaders. "But they are
not finished. They try to restore their image abroad by co-operating
with the international forces but inside Indonesia they try
to whip nationalism. That worked surprisingly well." The destruction
of East Timor also sent a chilling message that Mr Habibie
was wrong not to consult the military before ordering a referendum
there, he said, adding: "They tell the future president that
they can't rule without the military."
Ms
Megawati has attacked Mr Habibie over East Timor but kept
quiet on the military. Last week she upset supporters by ordering
her elected city council members in Jakarta to support a military
figure as speaker. Indria Samego, a military expert, said
the elite's tolerance towards the military's failures was
dictated in part by the swing-vote it controls in the new
legislature that chooses the next president, but even more
by an ingrained deference of many Indonesians to the armed
forces. "It's a psychological problem," Mr Samego said. "Civilians,
even intellectuals, still respect the military more than the
civilians." The Christian minority which is prominent in the
elite, he added, also sees the military as a bastion against
the Moslem majority.
Conveniently
for the military, there are plenty of distractions from its
failure in East Timor. The newspapers have been filled with
investigations and parliamentary hearings into "Baligate",
a corruption scandal involving a transfer of government funds
to Bank Bali and subsequent transfer of some Rp546bn (Pounds
41m) to senior members of Golkar.
Members
of parliament and newspapers have mentioned Ahmad Arnold Baramuli,
head of the Supreme Advisory Council and one of Mr Habibie's
most trusted advisers, along with several ministers and senior
officials. The scandal is widely seen as the nail in the coffin
of Mr Habibie's re-election campaign, ahead of a session of
the People's Consultative Assembly, the country's highest
legislative body, which will choose a new president in November.
An aide to Mr Habibie said the president was trying to move
the investigation from the politicised parliament to the more
pliable courts, which are likely to delay hearings until after
the elections. The government has suppressed a 400-page audit
of the case by PwC, the accountancy firm, held at the insistence
of the International Monetary Fund, which lists a number of
ministers and other officials who received a share of the
pilfered funds.
The
IMF last week "again expressed its concerns to the Indonesian
authorities regarding the need for full and prompt disclosure
of the PricewaterhouseCoopers report". The Fund has postponed
its regular review of Indonesia's reform programme, and thereby
consideration of new loans, until the case is resolved.
A
new scandal has now surfaced. The president of Indosat, the
partially privatised international telephone operator, resigned
last week, soon after the government fired his finance director,
after a report by the state auditing agency saying dividends
had been illegally diverted. Indosat had delayed payment of
Rp122bn in dividend to the government and the finance director
kept the interest earned in the interval, Rp22.5bn, said a
government statement.
The
Financial Times
Page
4
London
Edition 1
Copyright
(C) Financial Times Ltd, 1982-1997
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